Big picture
There are all sorts of scenarios and permutations about which teams could make it through to the semi-finals in Group A but the simplest is this: if Australia beat India, it will be Pakistan and Australia who progress. The group will be done and dusted with two games to go. Things become more complex if India win. They will be in prime position due to their remaining game against a weakened West Indies and Australia's fixture against an unbeaten Pakistan. However, should India and Australia either both win or both lose their last group game, net run-rate will be required to determine the semi-finalists.
It means that there's a lot riding on this day-night encounter and neither team enters the match in peak form. India have the advantage of familiarity with the conditions at Centurion, where they lost to Pakistan on Saturday. Australia are coming off a win but it was a scratchy and in parts unconvincing victory against an under-strength West Indies in the different conditions at the Wanderers. It's hard to predict a winner, though the bookmakers favour Australia.
Australia will be most concerned about breaking India's opening partnership early; Gautam Gambhir and Sachin Tendulkar have troubled Ricky Ponting's men in the past and Australia's fast bowlers lacked penetration against West Indies. The presence or absence of the stiff and sore Michael Clarke looms as another potential key. Unlike India, Australia aren't automatically out if they lose but it will be a hard road back. The teams meet for seven one-dayers in India in October and November but none will matter as much as this game.
Form guide
(last five completed matches, most recent first)
Australia - WLWWW
India - LWLWW
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