New Delhi/Lucknow: Mulayam Singh Yadav, 72, not Akhilesh Yadav, 39, will be the new Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister. The Samajwadi Party is home in UP, leading in 195 seats, within striking distance of a simple majority at noon. In Punjab, another father-son duo is making history - the Badals of the Shiromani Akali Dal seem set to get a majority, the first ever to keep power in the state. (Assembly Elections 2012: Live Trends)The Congress and the BJP both admit some introspection is called for. The two national parties are slugging it out for top honours in Uttarakhand, but in neighbouring UP they are fighting for the number three and number four slot. The day's biggest loser, Mayawati, is a poor second in UP, with her BSP crawling up and stretching to touch 100 seats. In 2007, the BSP had 206 and became the first party since 1991 to get a majority on its own in UP. Mayawati will meet the Governor at 3.30 pm and is expected to resign. (Bad day for Congress, worse for the BJP?)
In Lucknow, Akhilesh Yadav, who attempted a successful image makeover for the SP, is the man of the moment. Underplaying his role, he said the entire SP had won the day together. He thanked the people for "believing in the SP...people across caste and community voted for the SP," he said.
Importantly, Akhilesh Yadav is not ruling out an alliance with anyone, including the Congress, yet to make up the numbers it could stop short of. "We will decide once we know our numbers," said the SP's UP president. For his father, this will be a fourth term as Chief Minister. The dancing crowds and sea of red Gandhi caps outside the SP office in Lucknow tell that story; the deserted BSP office is a striking contrast. (For Akhilesh Yadav, mission accomplished) The Congress' fortunes have swung wildly through the morning, but the report card so far reads - fighting for number three with the BJP in UP, down in Punjab, down in Goa, neck and neck with the BJP in Uttarakhand. And it is keeping Manipur. In UP the party has doubled its tally from the 22 it had in 2007.
In early trends, the BJP had seemed the surprise package of UP but is now settling down to a better-than-before-but-not-quite-there performance. Party leader Sudheendra Kulkarni described it as a "wasted opportunity." The Congress has doubled its tally of 22 in 2007, but is it of any consequence? Party spokesman Rashid Alvi said "whatever verdict has been given by the people, we have accepted....It was against our expectations and we will find out where we have gone wrong".
Rahul Gandhi's lieutenants in UP all prefaced counting day with the assertion that if Congress did well in UP, it was the Rahul magic working. But if it failed, it was all their fault. UP Congress chief Rita Bahugana said that this morning. But these elections were a public test for Rahul's political equity and seven years of focusing on UP. Analysts say that the mandalisation of the Congress, which aggressively played the Muslim quota card, might have gifted it. (Will Congress admit Rahul Gandhi under-performed in UP?)
Punjab has a long tradition of voting out whoever is in power. The Shiromani Akali Dal looks poised to change that statistic now, but by the slimmest of margins. Akali ally the BJP has lost significantly in the state. But Captain Amarinder Singh, who said yesterday that he was cooking the Akali goose, may have to eat his words.
Goa saw a huge turnout - over 82 per cent. Poll pundits say that there could be a BJP comeback after five years of Congress-NCP rule. Very early trends from the two Goa centres are in keeping with that projection.
In Uttarakhand, the efforts and clean image of BJP Chief Minister BC Khanduri have been universally appreciated and though analysts across said the party might have brought him in too late to keep the state, the BJP and the Congress are neck and neck. Mr Khanduri was brought in by the BJP only in September last to try and obliterate the taints of corruption that the party needed to obliterate and the Congress has smelt a comeback chance in the hill state.
The Congress will keep Manipur.
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