UK animation industry 'at risk'

The British animation industry, which has spawned favourites from Bagpuss to Bob the Builder, is at risk of terminal decline, leading animators have warned.

Animation UK, a lobby group backed by prominent studios, has met Chancellor George Osborne to urge him to introduce tax breaks in next month's budget.
They have told him the industry is at a "critical tipping point" and could disappear from the UK within years.
They say foreign tax breaks and other factors make it cheaper to work abroad.
Animation UK said their meeting with Mr Osborne was "positive and productive".
It follows a warning from Wallace and Gromit animators Aardman, which said it was considering moving production overseas because it was too expensive in the UK.
'Important role' In France, government funds and tax breaks account for almost 20% of production budgets, while Irish tax relief is worth up to 28%. In Canada, tax credits and other public support accounted for 47% of budgets in 2009/10.
A Treasury spokesman said the government recognised "the important role that all businesses - including those in the animation sector - have in building a strong, sustainable and balanced economy".
The government has already taken steps to help businesses by lowering corporation tax and widening measures to stimulate investment, he said.
Here, leading figures of the British animation industry explain why they believe it will be a struggle to ensure future children's favourites are made in the UK.

Anne Wood, Ragdoll Productions

Anne Wood co-created Teletubbies and Rosie and Jim. Her latest animations, The Adventures of Abney & Teal and Dipdap, made their debuts on CBeebies last year.

Wood was made a CBE for services to children's broadcasting in 2000

Asked whether she would be able launch a production company if she was starting out today, she instantly replies: "Couldn't do it. Wouldn't be viable.
"When I started, I was one of the first independent companies and we made for Channel 4. You got your full production costs plus a production fee. Now you're lucky to get 15-20% of your production costs and you have to go out and find the other 80%."
The BBC is the only British broadcaster left that spends significant sums on new programmes, she says. "You've got all of these extra channels but the money for content has gone down."
It is cheaper for TV channels to buy programmes made in countries with tax breaks or in the US, she says.
"We are then abandoning ourselves to North American culture because in North America it's such a big market, so people can make their money back in their home market and let it come over here cheaper."
Ms Wood's company Ragdoll tried once to outsource animation to India, where labour costs are lower, but describes that as "a complete disaster" because she had less control over the outcome.
"You lose the confidence and you lose the flair. We have confidence and flair in the UK and that is what's going," she said, adding: "I'm deeply concerned that that heritage and wealth of talent is being eroded to the point of almost disappearing."

Andrew Haydon, Chapman Entertainment

Chapman Entertainment created Fifi and the Flowertots and Roary the Racing Car, and director and co-founder Andrew Haydon says three developments have conspired against UK animators.

Fifi and the Flowertots is shown on Five in the UK and Nick Jr in the US

Overseas tax breaks make it cheaper to make programmes abroad, TV stations are paying less for shows while demanding an increasing share of the profits, and the recession means revenues from toys, books and DVDs are down.
"If you put those three together then it just doesn't make it work," he says.
Of the company's creations, Fifi and the Flowertots, Roary the Racing Car and Raa Raa the Noisy Lion have been animated in Altrincham, Cheshire, with Little Charley Bear made at Pinewood Studios, Buckinghamshire.
The desire to retain the same styles of animation means there is an "overriding need" to keep those shows in the UK, he says.
But the company's founder Keith Chapman, who created Bob the Builder, has been taking new ideas to producers in Canada.
"With brand new ones you'd be slightly mad to be doing it in the UK without a tax break or some sort of benefit," Mr Haydon says.
"If we do something that's new, it will be a co-production and it will be an overseas production."

Francis Fitzpatrick, Cosgrove Hall Fitzpatrick

Cosgrove Hall was an animation institution, making classics including Danger Mouse, The Wind in the Willows and Chorlton and the Wheelies in its Manchester studios.

Cosgrove Hall Fitzpatrick is now run by (l to r) Brian Cosgrove, Francis Fitzpatrick and Simon Hall

It was shut by its owner ITV in 2009, but the studio was recently resurrected by its founders, the late Mark Hall and Brian Cosgrove along with entrepreneur Francis Fitzpatrick.
So at a time when the rest of the industry is talking doom and gloom, why are they going back into animation?
Mr Fitzpatrick replies: "Sometimes when things are difficult, the flip side of that is that no one else is starting so there's massive opportunity."
Their new flagship show Pip! will be made in Manchester, he promises. But the UK has "a big hill to climb" to compete with countries like Canada, Ireland and France, he says.
"If you spend £1 in Ireland, you will get an immediate tax return of 28p. A French production company can attract up to 70% of the funding [from the government].
"It's very challenging [in the UK]. Yes it is viable, but it would be so much better if it was on a level playing field.
"If there was more government support, I think you'd find more Thomas the Tanks, more Peppa Pigs, and the upside of that is massive boosts in revenues to the exchequer."

Phil Davies, Astley Baker Davies

Animation trio Astley Baker Davies are best known for creating Peppa Pig, which is broadcast in 180 countries.

Phil Davies, Mark Baker and Neville Astley (l to r) have won Bafta Awards for Peppa Pig

Phil Davies and Mark Baker started their careers making short films for Channel 4, which closed its dedicated animation arm in 2002.
"The directors of tomorrow had natural homes to go to in short film-making when they left college, and that seems to have completely disappeared now," Davies says.
The firm's shows, which also include Ben & Holly's Little Kingdom, are made at their base in Regent Street, London.
"We have a piece of bespoke animation software that we use to animate our series, and without that we just couldn't afford to do it over here," Davies explains.
"Before we would have needed 100 or 120 people. Now we've got 30 people. As film-makers we want to be in work and making something, so it's a matter of finding new and novel ways to carry on with production."
Davies says he knows "many, many people" who have been lured to countries like Ireland and Canada and his company has been offered "fantastic deals" to move production abroad.
He has resisted so far because "it's fantastically difficult to animate at arm's length". But he adds: "The next series or the next film that we do? I think the jury's out."

Curtis Jobling

Curtis Jobling, who designed Bob the Builder and created Frankenstein's Cat, describes himself as a "freelance creative", coming up with ideas for shows.

Bob the Builder has been broadcast in more than 250 territories in 45 languages

But in recent years he has turned to writing books because it was too difficult to get animation ideas off the ground.
"I was trying to get my shows picked up and developed by studios but I was getting a great deal of feedback from producers saying they'd love to work with me, but they can't because they've got a limited budget to work to," he says.
"Rather than looking overseas I've actually concentrated on the publishing side of things. I've been writing novels for the past couple of years and it hasn't been as attritional as developing animations can sometimes be.
"It is sad when you hear about people going overseas to find work. It's people throughout the industry - jobbing animators, right the way through the production process, to designers and the people who come up with the concepts.
"I know a couple of people who do a similar role to me, coming up with ideas for shows, who now just work out of LA. They've gone over there and they don't bother knocking on doors in the UK any more."

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Greece bailout: Coalition fails to agree cuts

Greek PM Lucas Papademos has failed to secure the support of his coalition for a raft of new austerity measures, after more than seven hours of talks.

 

He had met officials from three parties to try to secure a deal leading to a fresh bailout package.
The main stumbling block in the crunch talks was proposed pension cuts, reports said.
Mr Papademos was said to be going directly to discuss the problem with EU and IMF officials.
They are representing the so-called "troika" of bailout creditors - the European Union, the European Central Bank and the International Monetary Fund - who had earlier agreed the draft proposals with the prime minister.
They are thought to include a 20% minimum wage reduction, pension cuts and the sacking of 15,000 public sector workers - and have prompted further mass protests.
Officials from Pasok, New Democracy and the far-right Laos party only received the 50-page text on Wednesday morning, reports said, after Mr Papademos agreed the deal with the troika on Tuesday night.

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Syria unrest: West deplores UN veto by Russia and China

Western nations have deplored the vetoing by Russia and China of a UN resolution condemning the crackdown in Syria on anti-government protests.

The US said the veto was "shameful", while Britain said it "lets the Syrian people down". France also condemned the block at the UN Security Council.
Russia and China said the proposed draft was "unbalanced".
The document was rejected just hours after activists accused Syrian troops of killing at least 55 people in Homs.
The BBC's Paul Wood, who entered the Syrian city with rebels after the vote, says gun and shell fire can be heard there.
On Sunday, opponents of the Syrian government ransacked the country's embassy in the Australian capital, Canberra.

Police said a group of at least 40 men smashed through the front door, broke some of the furniture and stole computers.

The attack follows a number of similar incidents at Syrian embassies in the Middle East and Europe.
'Disgusted' American UN envoy Susan Rice described the veto on Saturday as "shameful", saying Russia and China aimed to "sell out the Syrian people and shield a craven tyrant".
"Any further bloodshed that flows will be on their hands," she said.
She later wrote on Twitter: "Disgusted that Russia and China prevented the UN Security Council from fulfilling its sole purpose."
Britain's Foreign Secretary William Hague said in a statement that the approach by Moscow and Beijing "lets the Syrian people down, and will only encourage President [Bashar] Assad's brutal regime to increase the killing".
In Paris, French President Nicolas Sarkozy said in a statement that he "strongly deplores" the veto but promised to carry on seeking a solution.
Mohammed Loulichki, Morocco's ambassador to the UN and the sole Arab member of the current council, voiced "great regret and disappointment" that Moscow and Beijing had struck it down.
The Arab draft resolution had adopted an Arab League call for a "Syrian-led political transition to a democratic, plural political system".
However, Russia said it singled out the government and did not contain measures against armed opposition groups.
Russia's UN envoy Vitaly Churkin said the draft had lacked balance.
"Some influential members of the international community unfortunately... have been undermining the opportunity for political settlement, calling for a regime change, pushing the oppositionists to power," he said.
Beijing's UN ambassador Li Baodong said putting pressure on the Syrian government or "imposing a solution" would not help to resolve the issue.
Pro-Assad residents in the Syrian capital Damascus welcomed the Sino-Russian stance.
"I believe there are more important issues for the Security Council to take care of... such as the starvation in Somalia, and Gaza," one told BBC News.
'Hysterical campaign' Early accounts of the casualties in Homs on Saturday talked of as many as 200 deaths, but one of the main activist groups later revised its confirmed toll down to 55.

The BBC's Paul Wood says he and his cameraman heard heavy machine-gun fire and explosions when they entered Homs on Saturday afternoon.
He says Homs appears to have come under a pretty relentless bombardment and parts of the city that oppose the regime have been cut off.
Homs was one of the first cities to join anti-Assad protests, and became one of the focal points of dissent after government forces fired on crowds in April last year. Many army defectors have sought refuge in the city.
State media dismissed the Homs casualty reports as a "hysterical campaign of incitement" by armed gangs designed to influence the UN.
International media outlets are restricted in Syria, making it difficult to verify the claims of either side.
Syria has been gripped by nationwide protests against Mr Assad's government for almost a year, in a struggle that has claimed at least 5,400 lives, according to the UN.

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The pill 'does ease period pain'

Oral contraceptives may alleviate painful periods for some women, suggests a 30-year study.

Estimates suggest more than half of women have suffered from the condition, called dysmenorrhoea, at some point.
The Scandinavian study, reported in the journal Human Reproduction, found women on the pill reported slightly less severe period pains.
Oral contraceptives are not currently officially licensed for this purpose.
The researchers, from Sahlgrenska Academy at Gothenburg University, followed groups of hundreds of 19-year-olds, recruiting some in 1981, some in 1991, and the rest in 2001.
Five years after an initial health questionnaire, the women were contacted again to see if anything had changed.

Dr Ingela Lindh, who led the study, said: "We found there was a significant difference in the severity of dysmenorrhoea depending on whether or not the women used combined oral contraceptives."

While it was hard to quantify precisely this difference in pain levels, on average it represented a change from "severe" to "moderate" pain in every third woman in the group taking oral contraceptives.
Dr Lindh said that the impact of painful periods should not be underestimated.
She said: "Painful periods occur frequently, particularly in young women where as many as 50% to 75% suffer from dysmenorrhoea.
"It can have a detrimental effect on these women's lives, causing regular absenteeism from school and work, and interfering with their daily activities for several days each month.
"Effective management of dysmenorrhoea is beneficial for both the women affected and society."
One US survey suggested that the condition could cause 600m lost working hours in the US each year.
However, earlier efforts to detect any link between the pill and period pain had proved fruitless, with a 2009 Cochrane Review concluding there was limited evidence for pain improvement.
At present, the European Medicines Agency, which oversees drug licensing across the EU, does not include the treatment of period pain as a licensed use for oral contraceptives.
This means that any doctor in the UK who wishes to prescribe for that purpose would have to go outside the official licensing scheme, and many would be unwilling to do so.
Dr Lindh said that the new information from her study should be included in contraceptive counselling sessions.
Sheila Tyne, a nurse advisor at Women's Health Concern, said that as many as 10% of women suffered severe and debilitating period pain each month.
She said: "Some GPs are prepared to prescribe the contraceptive pill for this reason - it certainly doesn't help everyone, but there are a lot of women who say that taking the pill has made things better.
"It's something we would talk about to women as part of a consultation on contraception, although we are not allowed to prescribe oral contraceptives for period pain alone."

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Sopa: US backers end support for anti-piracy bill

Eight US lawmakers have withdrawn their backing from anti-piracy laws, after "blackout" protests on thousands of internet sites.

Two of the bill's co-sponsors, Marco Rubio from Florida and Roy Blunt from Missouri, are among those backing away.
 
Online encyclopaedia Wikipedia and blog service WordPress are among the highest profile sites to block their content.
The Motion Picture Association of America (MPAA) has branded the protests as "irresponsible" and a "stunt".
The MPAA, Hollywood's primary advocate in Washington and a key supporter of the legislation, is led by former Connecticut Democratic Senator Chris Dodd.
Both bills focus on responding to online piracy, specifically illegal copies of films and other media.
The bills would also outlaw sites from containing information about how to access blocked sites.
The BBC's Jonny Dymond says that with Mr Rubio and Mr Blunt withdrawing their support, the Senate bill - Protect Intellectual Property Act (Pipa) - that had looked likely to pass, now appears to be in trouble.
Mr Rubio is a rising star in the Republican party, and is often suggested as a viable vice-presidential choice for this year's Republican presidential nominee.
Bi-partisan backlash Republicans and Democrats were among the lawmakers rowing back on Wednesday.

The list of senators no longer backing Pipa includes Mr Rubio and Mr Blunt, and Utah Senator Orrin Hatch, all Republicans, as well as Democrat Ben Cardin of Maryland.

In the House of Representatives, Republicans Ben Quayle of Arizona, Lee Terry of Nebraska and Dennis Ross of Florida said they were no longer supporting the Stop Online Piracy Act (Sopa), joining Pennsylvania Democrat Tim Holden.
Mr Ross tweeted that he was no longer supporting Sopa, because as "a true free marketer, I want IP protected correctly".
In a Facebook posting, Mr Rubio said he and fellow Senators "heard legitimate concerns about the impact the bill could have on access to the internet".
Mr Hatch called Pipa "not ready for prime-time" and said he would remove himself from the bill's list of sponsors.
Blackout on the web The US news website Politico estimated that 7,000 sites were involved by early Wednesday morning.

Google did not shut down its main search but is showing solidarity by placing a black box over its logo when US-based users visit its site.

Online marketplace Craigslist asks site visitors to contact their representatives in Congress before moving on to the main site.
Visitors to Wikipedia's English-language site were greeted by a dark page with white text which said: "Imagine a world without free knowledge... The US Congress is considering legislation that could fatally damage the free and open internet. For 24 hours, to raise awareness, we are blacking out Wikipedia."
If users tried to access its other pages via search sites, the text briefly flashed up before being replaced by the protest page. However, people were sharing workarounds to disable the redirect.
When the protest ended at 0500GMT on Thursday, Wikipedia carried the message: "Thank you for protecting Wikipedia".
WordPress's homepage displayed a video which claimed that Sopa "breaks the internet" and asked users to add their name to a petition asking Congress to stop the bill.
"The authors of the legislation don't seem to really understand how the internet works," the site's co-founder, Matt Mullenweg told the BBC.
Other net firms that have criticised the legislation decided not to take part in the blackout.
Twitter's founder, Dick Costolo, tweeted that it would be "foolish" to take the service offline.
'Gimmick' The moves were described as an "abuse of power" by one of the highest-profile supporters of the anti-piracy bills.
"It is an irresponsible response and a disservice to people who rely on them for information," Mr Dodd said in a statement, calling the actions taken by the high-profile websites "yet another gimmick".
In addition to the MPAA's support for the legislation, the US Chamber of Commerce said claims against the legislation had been overstated.

"[The sponsors] announced they would roll back the provisions of these bills designed to block foreign criminal websites, striking a major conciliatory note with those who raised legitimate concerns," said Steve Tepp, chief intellectual property counsel at the chamber's Global Intellectual Property Center.

"What remains are two pieces of legislation that are narrowly tailored and commercially reasonable for taking an effective swipe at the business models of rogue sites."
The proposed legislation would allow the Department of Justice and content owners to seek court orders against any site accused of "enabling or facilitating" piracy.
Sopa also calls for search engines to remove infringing sites from their results. Pipa does not include this provision.
Google posted a blog on the subject claiming that the bills would not stop piracy.
"There are better ways to address piracy than to ask US companies to censor the internet. The foreign rogue sites are in it for the money, and we believe the best way to shut them down is to cut off their sources of funding."
The events coincided with news that the US House of Representatives plans to resume work on Sopa next month. The Senate is expected to start voting on 24 January on how to proceed on Pipa.
Even if Congress approves the bills, President Barack Obama may decide to veto them.
The White House issued a statement at the weekend saying that "we will not support legislation that reduces freedom of expression, increases cybersecurity risk, or undermines the dynamic, innovative global internet".

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Pakistan PM Gilani appears at Supreme Court hearing

Pakistani PM Yousuf Raza Gilani has appeared before the country's Supreme Court in contempt proceedings, to defend his record.

The court initiated the hearing over Mr Gilani's refusal to ask Swiss officials to reopen a corruption case against President Asif Ali Zardari.
If found guilty of contempt he could be banned from holding public office.
After a hearing lasting little more than an hour the case was adjourned until early February.
Mr Gilani had smiled and waved as he arrived at the Supreme Court, accompanied by senior cabinet ministers.
In a lengthy opening statement he spoke of his respect for the court and the Pakistani constitution.
He said he had not intended to defy the court but that he believed Mr Zardari had presidential immunity from prosecution.
"I have discussed this with my friends and experts, and they all agree that he has got complete immunity," the AFP news agency reported Mr Gilani as saying.
"It will not give a good message to proceed against a president who is elected by a two-thirds majority."
Mr Gilani's embattled government is currently embroiled in disputes with the judiciary and also with Pakistan's powerful armed forces.
The prime minister sounded conciliatory at the hearing but his appearance was intended to be a show of strength for the government, says the BBC's Aleem Maqbool in Islamabad.

Mounting tensions face Pakistan's prime minister and government

'No harm' Mr Gilani has long refused to write the letter to the Swiss authorities but his lawyer, Aitzaz Ahsan, indicated on Wednesday that the prime minister might reverse that stance.
"There is no harm in writing a letter to the Swiss authorities," he said.
"The president has complete immunity against criminal procedures in the courts."
He added: "I don't think the prime minister has committed contempt of court by not writing the letter. Through my arguments I will try to convince the court that the prime minister is not guilty of contempt."
Money laundering Mr Zardari and his late wife, former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto, were found guilty in absentia by a Swiss court in 2003 of laundering millions of dollars in kickbacks from Swiss firms while they were in government.
They appealed and Swiss officials dropped the case in 2008 at the request of the Pakistani government.
The case was one of thousands dropped as a result of an amnesty that allowed Ms Bhutto to return from self-imposed exile and run for election in 2008. She was assassinated shortly after returning in late 2007.
However, in 2009 Pakistan's Supreme Court declared the amnesty unconstitutional, leaving those covered by it open to prosecution.
The government is also engaged in a dispute with the military over an anonymous memo asking for US help to avert a possible army coup in Pakistan. The memo was sent in the wake of the killing of Osama Bin Laden in May 2011.
US officials have acknowledged receiving the memo but say they took no action over it.
Both disputes have overshadowed Pakistan's deteriorating relationship with Washington following US air strikes that accidentally killed 24 Pakistani soldiers in November.

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Why is the US marriage rate falling sharply?

 

For the first time in memory, unmarried Americans will soon outnumber those who are married, according to the latest research. So is this a watershed moment?

At first glance it would appear that, in common with many Western countries, marriage is in terminal decline in the United States.
In 1960, 72% of all American adults were married; in 2010 just 51% were, according to the Pew Centre. The number dropped sharply by 5% in the most recent year, 2009-10.
"I think we are on the cusp of seeing marriage becoming less central to our life course and in framing the lives of our nation's children. So I think it is a major moment in that regard," says Bradford Wilcox, director of the National Marriage Project and a sociology professor at the University of Virginia.

Americans are certainly waiting longer before they tie the knot - the average age for a first marriage is at an all-time high of 26.5 years for women and 28.7 for men - or else opting to cohabit, live alone or not re-marry when they get divorced.
In the UK, women are, on average, waiting until the age of 30 before getting married, while the average age of a UK bridegroom is 32. In both countries the number of weddings is at an all-time low.

Chicago Tribune syndicated advice columnist Amy Dickinson believes the increase in no-fault divorces and tougher child support laws are two reasons behind the falling popularity of married life in America.

"It is no longer necessary to be married to someone in order to pursue financial support and I believe this has had a huge impact on couples who have children together and, let's say, 20 years ago would get married in order to establish legitimacy and then, hence, get financial support."
In some communities single parenthood is now the norm, she argues, and Americans have become more comfortable with "non-traditional" households.
America also has the world's highest divorce rate - and that has undoubtedly shaken the confidence of many young people in the institution of marriage.
Rhyan Romaine and her partner Seth have been together for six years but have resisted pressure from friends and family to rush into marriage.
"Seth comes from a family of divorce and has seen how it's affected his life and his family.
"He says he couldn't imagine even thinking about marriage until we had been together for 10 years and I said as long as we are happy together we will stay together," says Miss Romaine.
"I think it's a fear that I have too, even though my parents are married. It's scary, having seen personal friends who have got married right out of college and who now are in their early thirties and dating again."
But Miss Romaine, a regional grant director for the American Loan Association, believes there is still a "lot of pressure" on young women to get married in America, where the idealised, fairytale wedding remains a staple of Hollywood romantic comedies and reality TV shows.
"I call it the 'marriage crazy'," she says. "All of a sudden this fever comes over women at a certain age. They get to about 24 or 25 and they have to hurry up and get married."
For many young people, marriage is simply the next item on their personal "checklist" after high school, college and career, she argues.
'Latin model' The Pew Centre research, which suggests marriage is falling out of favour far less quickly among college graduates than less educated groups, would appear to bear this argument out.

Nearly two-thirds of American adults with college degrees (64%) are married, compared with just 47% among those with a high school education. That is in sharp contrast to 1960, when the most educated and the least educated were about equally likely to be married.

"There has been a realisation among college-educated Americans that marriage is actually a pretty good idea, even if they don't like to talk about it in public," argues Bradford Wilcox.
"On things like abortion, on hot-button global social issues, Americans who are college educated are more liberal.
"But when it comes to thinking about how they are going to govern their own lives, their own family lives, our sense from the data is that they are more marriage-minded, they are more conventional about family life."
Mr Wilcox, whose Virginia University team researched the impact of the recent recession on American marriages, is concerned that marriage is "withering" among middle and lower income groups, with potentially disastrous effects on American society and the economy.
"I think we are moving more towards a classically Latin model, where the powerful and the privileged have strong, stable families and access to decent income and decent assets. And everyone who is not in that upper third is worse and worse off."
But perhaps it is a little premature to write the obituary for the American marriage just yet.
The sharp 5% decline in the number of new marriages in the US between 2009 and 2010, revealed by the Pew research, may simply be down to short-term economic factors.
With the cost of the average wedding running at about $20,000 (£12,946) many couples are opting for a longer engagement to give them more time to save up, according to Kyle Brown, of the American Bridal Association, which represents America's multi-billion dollar wedding industry.
But, he adds, his members have noticed "an increase in the beginning process of wedding planning, on items such as gowns, in the past three months".
"I would expect to see an uptick in the number of weddings in 2012 and 2013," he says. "It is purely down to economics."

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Carbon emissions 'will defer Ice Age'

Human emissions of carbon dioxide will defer the next Ice Age, say scientists.

The last Ice Age ended about 11,500 years ago, and when the next one should begin has not been entirely clear.
Researchers used data on the Earth's orbit and other things to find the historical warm interglacial period that looks most like the current one.
In the journal Nature Geoscience, they write that the next Ice Age would begin within 1,500 years - but emissions have been so high that it will not

"At current levels of CO2, even if emissions stopped now we'd probably have a long interglacial duration determined by whatever long-term processes could kick in and bring [atmospheric] CO2 down," said Luke Skinner from Cambridge University.

Dr Skinner's group - which also included scientists from University College London, the University of Florida and Norway's Bergen University - calculates that the atmospheric concentration of CO2 would have to fall below about 240 parts per million (ppm) before the glaciation could begin.
The current level is around 390ppm.
Other research groups have shown that even if emissions were shut off instantly, concentrations would remain elevated for at least 1,000 years, with enough heat stored in the oceans potentially to cause significant melting of polar ice and sea level rise.
Orbital wobbles The root causes of the transitions from Ice Age to interglacial and back again are the subtle variations in the Earth's orbit known as the Milankovitch cycles, after the Serbian scientist Milutin Milankovic who described the effect nearly 100 years ago.
The variations include the eccentricity of the Earth's orbit around the Sun, the degree to which its axis is inclined, and the slow rotation of its axis.
These all take place on timescales of tens of thousands of years.
The precise way in which they change the climate of the Earth from warm interglacial to cold Ice Age and back every 100,000 years or so is not known.
On their own, they are not enough to cause the global temperature difference of about 10C between Ice Age and interglacial. The initial small changes are amplified by various factors including the release of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere as warming begins, and absorption of the gas by the oceans as the ice re-forms.
It is also clear that each transition is different from previous ones, because the precise combination of orbital factors does not repeat exactly - though very similar conditions come around every 400,000 years.
 
The differences from one cycle to the next are thought to be the reason why interglacial periods are not all the same length.
Using analysis of orbital data as well as samples from rock cores drilled in the ocean floor, Dr Skinner's team identified an episode called Marine Isotope Stage 19c (or MIS19c), dating from about 780,000 years ago, as the one most closely resembling the present.
The transition to the Ice Age was signalled, they believe, by a period when cooling and warming seesawed between the northern and southern hemispheres, triggered by disruptions to the global circulation of ocean currents.
If the analogy to MIS19c holds up, this transition ought to begin within 1,500 years, the researchers say, if CO2 concentrations were at "natural" levels.
As things stand, they believe, it will not.
Loving CO2 The broad conclusions of the team were endorsed by Lawrence Mysak, emeritus professor of atmospheric and oceanic sciences at McGill University in Montreal, Canada, who has also investigated the transitions between Ice Ages and warm interglacials.
"The key thing is they're looking about 800,000 years back, and that's twice the 400,000-year cycle, so they're looking at the right period in terms of what could happen in the absence of anthropogenic forcing," he told BBC News.

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Russian toddler lost in Bryansk pavement collapse

 A toddler in Bryansk in western Russia is missing after falling through a hole that opened up as his mother took him for a walk.

The pavement gave way because of a burst hot-water pipe, emergency officials said.
The boy's mother, 26, was pulled alive from the hole by her traffic police officer husband, reports say.
But he was unable to rescue his son who is presumed to have died after his pushchair fell into the sewer below.
"The woman managed to grab on to the edge of the collapsed pavement, which saved her life," a Bryansk official was quoted as saying.
Her husband had apparently been on duty in the area and rushed to the scene, climbing down into the hole with the aid of a rope to pull his wife to safety.
Named by Russian media as Tatyana Didenko, she was taken to hospital in shock.
Remnants of the toddler's clothing were found by search teams but there was no sign of his body, according to regional emergency official Oleg Yankov.
The cause of the pavement collapse is unclear but investigators are looking at problems with the construction of a local sewage plant.
Bryansk regional governor Nikolai Denin told Russia 24 TV that recent mild weather could have caused a pipe to rupture, leading to sand below the pavement being washed away.
Investigators have opened a criminal manslaughter case.

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Iran death sentence for 'CIA spy' Amir Mirzai Hekmati

A US man of Iranian descent has been sentenced to death by a court in Tehran for spying for the CIA.

Amir Mirzai Hekmati was "sentenced to death for co-operating with a hostile nation, membership of the CIA and trying to implicate Iran in terrorism," semi-official Fars news agency said.
The 28-year-old's US-based family say he was in Iran visiting grandparents.
The sentence comes at a time of fresh tensions between Iran and the West over Tehran's nuclear programme.
Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said on Monday that further sanctions imposed by the West "will not have any impact on our nation".
"The Islamic establishment... knows firmly what it is doing and has chosen its path and will stay the course," he said in a speech broadcast on state television.
Televised 'confession' Iran says that, as a former US marine, Mr Hekmati received training at US bases in Afghanistan and Iraq before being sent to Iran for his alleged intelligence-gathering mission.

Iranian officials said his cover was blown even before he had arrived in the country, because he had been spotted by Iranian agents at the US-run Bagram military air base in neighbouring Afghanistan.

On 18 December, Mr Hekmati was shown on Iranian state television allegedly confessing to being part of a plot to infiltrate Iran's intelligence services for the CIA.
Televised confessions form a central part of Iran's political and judicial system, the BBC's Iran correspondent James Reynolds says. But human rights organisations strongly question their validity.
During his trial later in December, according to Fars, Mr Hekmati admitted he did have links to the CIA, but had never intended to harm Iran.
"I was deceived by the CIA... Although I was appointed to break into Iran's intelligence systems and act as a new source for the CIA, I had no intention of undermining the country," Fars quoted him as saying.
Mr Hekmati's family, who live in Arizona, say the charges against him are fabricated and that he was in Iran to visit his grandmothers - and they had "struggled to provide Amir with an attorney in Iran".
His father, Ali Hekmati, a college professor in Flint, Michigan, said his son joined the US military in 2001 and served in the Marines, where he was an Arabic translator.

At the time of his visit to Iran and subsequent arrest, Amir Hekmati was working in Qatar as a contractor for a company "that served the Marines", Mr Hekmati was quoted by the Associated Press as saying.

The US has demanded his release, saying he has been "falsely accused".
The state department said Swiss diplomats in Iran - who handle Washington's interests because of an absence of US-Iran diplomatic relations - were not allowed to see Mr Hekmati before his trial.
Mr Hekmati has 20 days to appeal against the sentence.
'Red line' The sentence further heightens the tensions which rose after the US said it would impose new sanctions on Iran's central bank and the European Union would impose an embargo on Iran's oil exports.

The West believes Iran is trying to develop nuclear weapons, although Tehran has always insisted its nuclear programme is for peaceful purposes only.
In response to the sanctions threat, Tehran has threatened to close the Strait of Hormuz - a key route from the Gulf through which 20% of the world's traded oil passes.
US defence chiefs on Sunday warned that they would take action if Iran closed the strait.
Defence Secretary Leon Panetta said such a move would cross a "red line" and "we would take action and reopen the strait."

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Nigeria fuel strike brings country to a halt

A general strike in Nigeria over the elimination of a fuel subsidy has brought the country to a standstill.

Shops, offices, schools and petrol stations around the country closed on the first day of an indefinite strike.
Thousands of people gathered in Lagos and other cities to protest at the loss of the subsidy which has meant a doubling of fuel and transport costs.
In the northern city of Kano, 20 people were injured as police fired tear gas and shot live rounds in the air.
President Goodluck Jonathan has said the subsidy was economically unsustainable.
The normally bustling streets of Lagos are quiet, with the exception of police patrols and protesters on their way to rallies.

Several thousand people have gathered at Gani Fewehinmi park in the city and more are arriving all the time, says the BBC's Mark Lobel in Nigeria's commercial capital.

There have been reports that one protester was shot dead in Lagos.
In the main northern city of Kano, police fired tear gas and shots in the air to disperse thousands of protesters who were converging on the governor's office. Twenty people were injured, says BBC Hausa Service reporter Yusuf Ibrahim in the city.
In Abuja, pickets closed the airport, preventing flights from arriving or leaving, says the BBC's Ibrahim Shehu Adamu in the Nigerian capital.
Also in Abuja, there are reports that youths camping in the city's Eagle Square were cleared out overnight by police using tear gas.
In the northern city of Kaduna, there is a heavy police presence and the streets are quiet, with all shops closed, says the BBC's Abdullahi Kaura Abubakar.
Ilorin, a large city in south-west Nigeria, was also at a standstill, a man who runs market stalls told the BBC. He said he ordered his staff to stay at home after he saw two vandalised cars.
Smuggled fuel There have been angry protests since the subsidy ended on 1 January as fuel and transport costs have doubled and other costs have risen as well.

The loss of the fuel subsidy has angered many Nigerians, who saw it as the only benefit they received from the country's vast oil wealth.
Most of Nigeria's 160 million people live on less than $2 (£1.30) a day, so the sharp price increases have hit them hard.
"With these increases, the cost of transport has gone up and this has also affected the cost of food, and the basic necessities of life, such as rents, school fees and medical bills," said Chris Uyot, a spokesman for the Nigeria Labour Congress, one of the strike's organisers.
A similar strike in 2003 saw Nigeria almost entirely shut down. It ended with a partial climbdown, when the government agreed to reduce the subside, rather than scrapping it altogether.
While the strike is expected to affect oil workers too, industry sources do not expect the industrial action to significantly affect crude exports, Reuters news agency reports.
Despite being a major Opec oil producer, Nigeria has not invested in the infrastructure to produce refined fuel, so has to import much of its petrol.

With the subsidy, fuel was much cheaper in Nigeria than neighbouring countries, so some of it was smuggled abroad.

Members of parliament have called on President Goodluck Jonathan to reconsider, but he has said the subsidy was economically unsustainable.
He made a televised address on Saturday to defend the the subsidy cut and other government austerity moves.
"We must act in the public interest, no matter how tough, for the pains of today cannot be compared to the benefits of tomorrow."
The deregulation of the petroleum sector was, he insisted, the best way to curb corruption and ensure the survival and growth of the economy.

Nigerians queued to buy petrol ahead of the strike

"The truth is that we are all faced with two basic choices... either we deregulate and survive economically, or we continue with a subsidy regime that will continue to undermine our economy and potential for growth, and face serious consequences."
He said that top government officials would, from this year, take a 25% pay cut, and foreign trips would also be reduced.
The government says it will spend the $8bn (£5bn) it saves each year by scrapping the subsidy on improving health, education and the country's erratic electricity supply.
However, many Nigerians fear it is more likely to end up in the pockets of corrupt officials.
Last month, International Monetary Fund (IMF) head Christine Lagarde praised President Jonathan's efforts to reform the Nigerian economy but cautioned that the country should become less reliant on oil exports for revenue.

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Hero's welcome for first rescued Chilean miners

Chile's president meets the miners in hospital and challenges them to a football match

The first of the 33 Chilean miners rescued after spending 69 days trapped underground have arrived home.

Three miners were given an enthusiastic welcome by neighbours and friends following their release from hospital late on Thursday.

Doctors said all the miners had responded well to treatment and many more of them would go home on Friday.

Chile's Trapped Miners

Earlier President Sebastian Pinera visited them and promised to stamp out "inhuman" working conditions in Chile.

Dr Jorge Montes, deputy medical director at the Copiapo hospital which has been treating the men, said the three who left would be allowed to carry out physical activity and would need sunglasses only if they were exposed to intense light.

However, he warned that "the psychological condition of the patients is something we cannot predict".

'Radical change'

One of the three, Edison Pena - covered in confetti and thronged by neighbours - described his homecoming as "very beautiful". "I thought I would never return," he said.

Miner Carlos Mamani (C) thanked the Chilean people

Another Juan Illanes, 52, told cheering friends and neighbours: "This is really incredible. It hasn't sunk in."

Still wearing the dark sunglasses he and his fellow miners were given to protect their eyesight, he said being trapped for weeks had taken him "to the limit".

The third, Bolivian Carlos Mamani, was the only foreigner among the 33. Speaking outside his home, the 24-year-old thanked "all the Chilean people who behaved so well in our rescue. Long live Chile! Long live Bolivia!"

Some of the men have been given dental surgery and two have the lung disease, silicosis: Mario Sepulveda, the second miner to have been rescued, and Mario Gomez, 63, who is on a course of antibiotics for pneumonia.

The men were hauled to the surface one at a time in a complicated and dramatic operation that began late on Tuesday and took about 22 hours from the time the first miner was brought up.

They were winched up a narrow shaft in a metal capsule from where they had been trapped 625m (2,050 feet) below ground since the mine partially collapsed on 5 August.

Speaking from hospital less than 24 hours after his rescue, miner Richard Villarroel described the trip in the capsule as "calm".

"Everything was well-prepared. I came up listening to music."

He and the 32 other miners have set a world record for surviving the longest time trapped underground.

President Pinera met the miners in the hospital and promised a review that would lead to a "very radical change" affecting the health and safety of workers in mining as well as the transport, fishing and construction industries.

He said it was impossible to guarantee that Chile would never face such an accident in the future.

"But we can guarantee one thing: never again in our country will we allow working in conditions so inhuman and so unsafe as happened in the San Jose mine and many other places in our country."

He told the miners there will be a big celebration for them on 25 October, in the capital, Santiago.

He also invited them for a game of football the same day against the officials who had helped rescue them.

Mr Pinera joked that the winners would be allowed to live at the presidential palace, La Moneda, while the losers would have to go back down the mine.

Offers

The miners survived the first 17 days of their ordeal by eking out rations that were meant to last just a few days before rescuers found them via a probe lowered down a bore hole about the width of a grapefruit.

There has been intense international media scrutiny of the rescued miners

Food and other supplies were lowered to the men while they waited for a larger shaft to be drilled for their rescue.

Now the men are safe, thoughts have turned to their emotional wellbeing.

An insight into how the miners are adjusting to life above ground has come from a diary written for the BBC by the three children of Omar Reygadas, the 17th to be freed.

One of the children, Ximena, has described how her father has become so pale after his 69 days underground that he resembles the cartoon ghost, Casper.

"In general, he's in good spirits. But then when he remembers the first few days after the accident, he starts crying, he gets very upset," she wrote.

"But then he pulls himself together and his spirits are high once more."

The Chilean government has promised to care for the miners for at least six months.

Offers and invitations to the men have begun to pour in.

European football clubs Manchester United and Real Madrid have invited the 33 to watch them play and they have also received offers of holidays and TV appearances.

They are also expected to receive offers of jobs, advertising deals and book and movie contracts to tell their extraordinary stories.

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