PUNE: By 2030, India can expect a 1 to 1.5 degree Celsius rise in temperature and more intense spells of rain. However, the number of rainy days will be fewer.
This phenomenon will directly impact water conservation making it a necessary practice, experts from the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM), Pune have said.
It was also observed that over the last 30-40 years, night temperature has gone up and such conditions have damaged the rice yield in the country.
IITM is one of the institutes involved in forecasting climate change for NATCOM. The institute provided inputs for the report Climate Change Assessment for 2030,' which was released by the minister of environment and forests Jairam Ramesh recently.
IITM scientist Krishna Kumar, who leads the team, said a regional climate model was used to assess the future climate.
"The UK meteorological office's regional climate model PRECIS (providing climate investigation studies) was used. Unlike global models, this regional model can capture the orography (formation and relief of mountains) better. It took them nine months to come up with these model simulations," he said.
These indicate that there will be 8-10% more rainfall in India and, the temperature will increase between 1 and 1.5 degree Celsius by 2030, Kumar added.
Kumar said that rainfall patterns will undergo change. For example, if a place receives 60 cm seasonal rainfall in 30 days, climate change can ensure that the same amount of seasonal rainfall occurs in 20-25 days resulting in an increased intensity of rainfall on any rainy day.
"Hence we have to change the way we conserve water. It has to be fine-tuned as the present practice may not be enough,'' Kumar said.
It was also observed that night temperature rise is more compared to day temperature over the last 20-30 years. The Indian Agricultural Research Institute (IARI) study observed that high night temperature in Punjab and Haryana has affected the quality of Basmati rice grown there.
"We have to see whether there will be any change in the tracks of monsoon depressions or in the onset of the monsoon. We must also assess the impact of climate change on socio-economy fronts too,'' said Kumar.
But there are many uncertainties in the projections. "One has to assume the amount of emissions in future. Hence, projections in climate change will also have uncertainties. It is obvious that there is going to be climate change, the question is, how can we mitigate it?" Kumar said.
"Reducing emissions, capturing carbon and storing it or by changing the albedo (reflectivity) of the atmosphere can help. Many geo-engineering methods involving mitigation techniques are being explored now, but we should assess their likely impact on our monsoon climate,'' he said.
Global climate change has already begun to affect the environment. Glaciers have shrunk, ice on rivers and lakes is breaking up earlier, plant and animal ranges have shifted and trees are flowering sooner, according to the US-based National Aeronautics and Space Administration.
This phenomenon will directly impact water conservation making it a necessary practice, experts from the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM), Pune have said.
It was also observed that over the last 30-40 years, night temperature has gone up and such conditions have damaged the rice yield in the country.
IITM is one of the institutes involved in forecasting climate change for NATCOM. The institute provided inputs for the report Climate Change Assessment for 2030,' which was released by the minister of environment and forests Jairam Ramesh recently.
IITM scientist Krishna Kumar, who leads the team, said a regional climate model was used to assess the future climate.
"The UK meteorological office's regional climate model PRECIS (providing climate investigation studies) was used. Unlike global models, this regional model can capture the orography (formation and relief of mountains) better. It took them nine months to come up with these model simulations," he said.
These indicate that there will be 8-10% more rainfall in India and, the temperature will increase between 1 and 1.5 degree Celsius by 2030, Kumar added.
Kumar said that rainfall patterns will undergo change. For example, if a place receives 60 cm seasonal rainfall in 30 days, climate change can ensure that the same amount of seasonal rainfall occurs in 20-25 days resulting in an increased intensity of rainfall on any rainy day.
"Hence we have to change the way we conserve water. It has to be fine-tuned as the present practice may not be enough,'' Kumar said.
It was also observed that night temperature rise is more compared to day temperature over the last 20-30 years. The Indian Agricultural Research Institute (IARI) study observed that high night temperature in Punjab and Haryana has affected the quality of Basmati rice grown there.
"We have to see whether there will be any change in the tracks of monsoon depressions or in the onset of the monsoon. We must also assess the impact of climate change on socio-economy fronts too,'' said Kumar.
But there are many uncertainties in the projections. "One has to assume the amount of emissions in future. Hence, projections in climate change will also have uncertainties. It is obvious that there is going to be climate change, the question is, how can we mitigate it?" Kumar said.
"Reducing emissions, capturing carbon and storing it or by changing the albedo (reflectivity) of the atmosphere can help. Many geo-engineering methods involving mitigation techniques are being explored now, but we should assess their likely impact on our monsoon climate,'' he said.
Global climate change has already begun to affect the environment. Glaciers have shrunk, ice on rivers and lakes is breaking up earlier, plant and animal ranges have shifted and trees are flowering sooner, according to the US-based National Aeronautics and Space Administration.
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